INDIA'S POPULATION TIME BOMB, OCT 22, 2009

Oct 22, 2009


India's population time bomb

By Ashwini Devare

MOOSAPETH (HYDERABAD): Fatigue and anxiety line Rajeshwari's face as she waits in the scorching heat, clutching her two-year-old son's hand.


Poor, illiterate and five months pregnant, 22-year-old Rajeshwari is among a dozen expectant women queuing up outside a community outreach clinic in Moosapeth, a low-income neighbourhood in Hyderabad, India's rapidly developing tech city. The women, who have been promised free medical check-ups, are waiting for a doctor from a local non-government organisation to arrive. Rajeshwari, who is expecting her second child, says she plans to have only two children.
That is good news in a country battling to curb its population growth. Andhra Pradesh, of which Hyderabad is the capital, is among a handful of states in India that has brought down its total fertility rate (TFR) to less than two, compared to the national average of 2.8.
It is states like Andhra Pradesh and Kerala that New Delhi is counting on to stem the rising tide of humanity that is threatening to erase the benefits of economic growth.
Ms Renu Kapoor, who runs the Hyderabad branch of the Family Planning Association of India, a non-government organisation, says she is seeing an increasing trend among women in Andhra Pradesh to have fewer children.
'We see the change in remote, rural areas as well. There is a lot more awareness. Even illiterate women who can barely sign their names don't want more than two children.'
India's family planning programme began impressively in 1952, when the country's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru launched the world's first National Family Planning Programme. More than half a century later, changes are taking place, albeit slowly.
India has reduced its average family size from six to three children over the last 40 years. Aggressive national campaigns with catchy slogans like Hum Do Hamare Do - Us Two, Our Two - have paid off. Yet, experts say it is still not enough to prevent population growth from placing a massive strain on resources like water, energy and food.
Over-population is often cited as the chief reason for India's social ills such as poverty and illiteracy. According to a UN Population Fund Report, India will be the most populous country in the world by the year 2050, with a projected 1.6 billion people. Other reports project 2035 as the year that India will overtake China in numbers.
Each year, India adds more people to the world's population than any other country - an estimated 20 million. Even assuming its TFR drops to 2.1 over the next two decades, India's population could reach two billion by the close of the 21st century.
'India's population growth can be compared to a fast moving express train, which has applied its brakes but cannot stop immediately because of its momentum,' says Mr A. R. Nanda, executive director of the Delhi-based Population Foundation of India.
'The population size will continue to grow for some time more because of the 'population momentum' factor.'
India's population conundrum is mired in centuries-old traditions, caste structures, cultural and religious beliefs. Traditionally, large families have been the norm, with children seen as old-age security, especially among the poor. India is predominantly a patriarchal society in which women, especially in rural areas, enjoy little freedom of choice over their own reproductive rights. The desire for sons is still deeply ingrained and female infanticide remains an alarming reality despite legislation prohibiting it.
The social problems are aggravated by other stumbling blocks. An absence of trained staff to administer birth control and the lack of access to contraceptives continue to hamper grassroots family planning initiatives. The demographic diversity further complicates the problem. The states with high TFR (3 or more) are the northern states that collectively make up over 40 per cent of the country's population and also have the lowest literacy levels in the country.
According to Mr Nanda, population control has to be looked at in the context of wider socio-economic development.
'One should have a mindset to look at population as a resource or an asset rather than liability or curse,' he says. 'There is no technical quick-fix solution. The answer does not lie in pushing sterilisations and chasing targets in the conventional mode. For population stabilisation, it is important to improve people's access, particularly women's access, to quality health care.'
A daunting challenge, given that nearly half of India's female population is illiterate and lives in poverty. The onus of contraception often falls on women and sterilisation remains the most common method. But because of health risks associated with unsterile operations, not to mention its finality, women tend to have more than two children before they go in for an operation.
Dr Gaurang Jani, a sociologist at Gujarat University, says social attitudes have not kept pace with technological changes, even in developed states like Gujarat.
'Electricity may be there, TV is there, tap water may be there in the village. But very little has changed for women. Women don't have the power to say no, girls are married off by their families before they turn 18. Sons are preferred even in the cities and among the educated.'
He points to the ban on sex education in schools by the governments of Gujarat and Maharashtra as a major setback for population control in the country.
But there is a bright spot. Out of India's soaring population, a shining statistic emerges: India's youth, often referred to as its 'demographic dividend'.
India is one of the youngest countries in the world, with approximately half its population less than 25 years old. Experts say India will enjoy this dividend at least until 2050, as young people continue to enter the labour market. India's middle-class youth - educated, tech-savvy, brand-conscious and eager to spend - continues to intoxicate global investors who eye this segment as a massive growth market.
Mr Rajeev Malik, head economist for India and Asean at Macquarie Capital Securities in Singapore, says: 'Rising population is a two-edged sword. India will have more mouths to feed, hence fixing agriculture has to be a top priority. Education and skill development are two effective ways. In their absence, the potential demographic dividend might turn into a demographic liability.'
The priority for India should be to educate its female population. Studies worldwide have shown educated women are likely to have fewer babies. Other developing countries have shown this to be the case.
Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country is a shining example. Today, nearly 80 per cent of Indonesian women are literate and their fertility rate has more than halved. In contrast, the World Bank puts female literacy in India at 48 per cent.
Educating women like Rajeshwari, empowering them about their reproductive rights, giving them better health care and enhancing their overall status in society are the means to the end of population control.
Long-term, India will have to recognise that a literate female population can also be a demographic dividend - and a powerful catalyst for change.